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CONCACAF Nations League · CONCACAF Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 87.8h before kickoff

Guatemala vs Canada

🇬🇹 Guatemala

🇨🇦 Canada

Sat, 14 Nov 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Guatemala host Canada in CONCACAF Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Guatemala collected 7 points (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). Canada earned 12 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Guatemala have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Canada have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

29.0%Home

24.1%Draw

46.9%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 46.9%

Total goals

54.7%Over 2.5

45.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

54.9%Yes

45.1%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

CONCACAF Nations League page →

Guatemala

No pre-match table context available.

Canada

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Guatemala

LLWDW

1.40Points / match

1.80Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Canada

WWWLW

2.40Points / match

1.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Guatemala at home

W-D-L3-2-0

Points / match2.20

Goals / match2.20

xG / match—

Canada away

W-D-L4-0-1

Points / match2.40

Goals / match1.60

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Guatemala.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Canada.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Guatemala expected goals

1.31

Canada expected goals

1.50

1–112.9%

1–28.9%

0–18.0%

2–17.7%

0–07.1%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.