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CONCACAF Nations League · CONCACAF Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 80.8h before kickoff

Bermuda vs Saint Lucia

🇧🇲 Bermuda

🇱🇨 Saint Lucia

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Bermuda host Saint Lucia in CONCACAF Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Bermuda collected 0 points (0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses). Saint Lucia earned 9 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Bermuda have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Saint Lucia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

17.9%Home

19.8%Draw

62.3%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 62.3%

Total goals

71.8%Over 2.5

28.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

55.7%Yes

44.3%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

CONCACAF Nations League page →

Bermuda

No pre-match table context available.

Saint Lucia

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Bermuda

LLLLL

0.00Points / match

1.20Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Saint Lucia

LLWWW

1.80Points / match

2.00Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Bermuda at home

W-D-L2-0-3

Points / match1.20

Goals / match1.80

xG / match—

Saint Lucia away

W-D-L3-0-2

Points / match1.80

Goals / match1.20

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Bermuda.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Saint Lucia.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Bermuda expected goals

1.26

Saint Lucia expected goals

2.27

1–29.5%

1–19.1%

0–27.5%

1–37.2%

2–26.0%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.