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CONCACAF Nations League · CONCACAF Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 80.8h before kickoff

Puerto Rico vs Dominica

🇵🇷 Puerto Rico

🇩🇲 Dominica

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Puerto Rico host Dominica in CONCACAF Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Puerto Rico collected 9 points (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). Dominica earned 2 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Puerto Rico have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Dominica have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

77.9%Home

13.3%Draw

8.8%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 77.9%

Total goals

66.1%Over 2.5

33.9%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

50.4%Yes

49.6%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

CONCACAF Nations League page →

Puerto Rico

No pre-match table context available.

Dominica

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Puerto Rico

LLWWW

1.80Points / match

1.20Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Dominica

DDLLL

0.40Points / match

0.40Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Puerto Rico at home

W-D-L3-0-2

Points / match1.80

Goals / match1.80

xG / match—

Dominica away

W-D-L0-2-3

Points / match0.40

Goals / match0.60

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Puerto Rico.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Dominica.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Puerto Rico expected goals

2.82

Dominica expected goals

0.83

2–010.4%

3–09.8%

2–18.6%

3–18.1%

4–06.9%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.