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Eredivisie · Eredivisie 26/27 Model vnext-shadow-2026-10 · locked 166.7h before kickoff

SC Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven

· Final

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

SC Cambuur host PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, SC Cambuur collected 13 points (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). PSV Eindhoven earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, SC Cambuur have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, PSV Eindhoven have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, SC Cambuur average 1.29 xG and 1.19 xGA over 4 recent matches; PSV Eindhoven average 1.78 xG and 1.56 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places SC Cambuur in position 8 and PSV Eindhoven in position 3. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

22.1%Home
22.1%Draw
55.8%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 55.8%

Total goals

66.8%Over 2.5
33.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

64.9%Yes
35.1%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches SC Cambuur 5/5, PSV Eindhoven 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Eredivisie page →
SC Cambuur
Position#8
Points17
Played11
Goal difference+2
PSV Eindhoven
Position#3
Points23
Played11
Goal difference+22

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

SC Cambuur

DWWWW
2.60Points / match
2.60Goals / match
1.29xG / match
1.19xGA / match
VS

PSV Eindhoven

LWLDW
1.40Points / match
2.60Goals / match
1.78xG / match
1.56xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

SC Cambuur at home
W-D-L3-0-2
Points / match1.80
Goals / match2.20
xG / match1.62
PSV Eindhoven away
W-D-L3-0-2
Points / match1.80
Goals / match2.80
xG / match2.09

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

SC Cambuur

19 Sep11 Oct24 Oct31 Oct
xGxGA

PSV Eindhoven

20 Sep09 Oct17 Oct25 Oct31 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

SC Cambuur expected goals

1.30

PSV Eindhoven expected goals

2.14
1–19.7%
1–29.5%
0–27.3%
1–36.8%
2–26.2%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

SC Cambuur

31 OctWH · Go Ahead EaglesxG 1.83 · xGA 0.634–024 OctWA · Willem II TilburgxG 1.91 · xGA 1.046–1
18 OctWH · AZ AlkmaarxG — · xGA —1–0
11 OctWA · PEC ZwollexG 0.82 · xGA 0.981–0
19 SepDA · ADO Den HaagxG 0.61 · xGA 2.101–1

PSV Eindhoven

31 OctWH · Willem II TilburgxG 2.57 · xGA 1.227–025 OctDH · FeyenoordxG 1.91 · xGA 1.221–1
17 OctLA · ADO Den HaagxG 1.05 · xGA 1.391–2
09 OctWH · SC HeerenveenxG 2.34 · xGA 1.552–0
20 SepLA · FC TwentexG 1.02 · xGA 2.402–3

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

Post-match analysis

Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.

PSV Eindhoven won 5–2 away to SC Cambuur. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 0.95 for SC Cambuur and 2.47 for PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven generated the higher xG total. SC Cambuur scored +1.05 goals relative to xG and PSV Eindhoven scored +2.53 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

SC Cambuur registered 10 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 30.0%); PSV Eindhoven recorded 16 shots, with 7 on target (shot accuracy: 43.8%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (55.8%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Post-match statistical review

Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.

SC Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven

Final score: 2–5. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 0.95 – 2.47.

Shots: 10 – 16.

Shots on target: 3 – 7.

Possession: 38.00% – 62.00%.

Corners: 1 – 1.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.

Forward result

The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.

Model performance →
✓ Hit1X2 · predicted Away, actual Away
✓ HitOver 2.5 · predicted Over, actual Over
✓ HitBTTS · predicted Yes, actual Yes

More Eredivisie match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.