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Eredivisie · Eredivisie 26/27 Model vnext-shadow-2026-10 · locked 162.9h before kickoff

SC Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles

· Final

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

SC Cambuur host Go Ahead Eagles in Eredivisie. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, SC Cambuur collected 13 points (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). Go Ahead Eagles earned 6 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, SC Cambuur have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Go Ahead Eagles have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, SC Cambuur average 1.61 xG and 1.26 xGA over 4 recent matches; Go Ahead Eagles average 2.00 xG and 1.28 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places SC Cambuur in position 10 and Go Ahead Eagles in position 9. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

35.1%Home
24.4%Draw
40.5%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 40.5%

Total goals

64.8%Over 2.5
35.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

66.6%Yes
33.4%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches SC Cambuur 5/5, Go Ahead Eagles 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Eredivisie page →
SC Cambuur
Position#10
Points14
Played10
Goal difference-2
Go Ahead Eagles
Position#9
Points14
Played10
Goal difference0

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

SC Cambuur

WDWWW
2.60Points / match
2.40Goals / match
1.61xG / match
1.26xGA / match
VS

Go Ahead Eagles

DDDLW
1.20Points / match
1.80Goals / match
2.00xG / match
1.28xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

SC Cambuur at home
W-D-L2-0-3
Points / match1.20
Goals / match1.40
xG / match1.34
Go Ahead Eagles away
W-D-L0-3-2
Points / match0.60
Goals / match1.80
xG / match2.09

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

SC Cambuur

12 Sep19 Sep11 Oct24 Oct
xGxGA

Go Ahead Eagles

12 Sep20 Sep10 Oct18 Oct23 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

SC Cambuur expected goals

1.60

Go Ahead Eagles expected goals

1.73
1–110.8%
1–28.6%
2–17.9%
2–26.9%
0–25.3%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

SC Cambuur

24 OctWA · Willem II TilburgxG 1.91 · xGA 1.046–1
18 OctWH · AZ AlkmaarxG — · xGA —1–0
11 OctWA · PEC ZwollexG 0.82 · xGA 0.981–0
19 SepDA · ADO Den HaagxG 0.61 · xGA 2.101–1
12 SepWH · NEC NijmegenxG 3.12 · xGA 0.933–0

Go Ahead Eagles

23 OctWH · SC TelstarxG 1.10 · xGA 1.053–2
18 OctLA · PEC ZwollexG 2.74 · xGA 1.771–4
10 OctDH · Sparta RotterdamxG 1.29 · xGA 2.363–3
20 SepDA · NEC NijmegenxG 2.31 · xGA 1.041–1
12 SepDH · FC GroningenxG 2.54 · xGA 0.161–1

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

Post-match analysis

Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.

SC Cambuur won 4–0 against Go Ahead Eagles. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.83 for SC Cambuur and 0.63 for Go Ahead Eagles. SC Cambuur generated the higher xG total. SC Cambuur scored +2.17 goals relative to xG and Go Ahead Eagles scored -0.63 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

SC Cambuur registered 15 shots, with 7 on target (shot accuracy: 46.7%); Go Ahead Eagles recorded 10 shots, with 1 on target (shot accuracy: 10.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (40.5%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Post-match statistical review

Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.

SC Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles

Final score: 4–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.83 – 0.63.

Shots: 15 – 10.

Shots on target: 7 – 1.

Possession: 51.00% – 49.00%.

Corners: 7 – 2.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.

Forward result

The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.

Model performance →
× Miss1X2 · predicted Away, actual Home
✓ HitOver 2.5 · predicted Over, actual Over
× MissBTTS · predicted Yes, actual No

More Eredivisie match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.