SC Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

SC Heerenveen host NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, SC Heerenveen collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). NEC Nijmegen earned 4 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, SC Heerenveen have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, NEC Nijmegen have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, SC Heerenveen average 2.01 xG and 1.44 xGA over 5 recent matches; NEC Nijmegen average 1.49 xG and 1.92 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places SC Heerenveen in position 6 and NEC Nijmegen in position 13. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

SC Heerenveen won 1–0 against NEC Nijmegen. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.42 for SC Heerenveen and 1.31 for NEC Nijmegen. SC Heerenveen generated the higher xG total. SC Heerenveen scored -0.42 goals relative to xG and NEC Nijmegen scored -1.31 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

SC Heerenveen registered 8 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 25.0%); NEC Nijmegen recorded 21 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 9.5%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (42.2%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

SC Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

Final score: 1–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.42 – 1.31.

Shots: 8 – 21.

Shots on target: 2 – 2.

Possession: 39.00% – 61.00%.

Corners: 5 – 7.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.