AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen

AZ Alkmaar host FC Groningen in Eredivisie. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, AZ Alkmaar collected 3 points (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). FC Groningen earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, FC Groningen have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, AZ Alkmaar average 1.46 xG and 1.24 xGA over 4 recent matches; FC Groningen average 1.97 xG and 1.90 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places AZ Alkmaar in position 5 and FC Groningen in position 9. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

AZ Alkmaar won 4–3 against FC Groningen. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 3.92 for AZ Alkmaar and 2.16 for FC Groningen. AZ Alkmaar generated the higher xG total. AZ Alkmaar scored +0.08 goals relative to xG and FC Groningen scored +0.84 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

AZ Alkmaar registered 19 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 26.3%); FC Groningen recorded 9 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 55.6%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (58.3%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen

Final score: 4–3. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 3.92 – 2.16.

Shots: 19 – 9.

Shots on target: 5 – 5.

Possession: 58.00% – 42.00%.

Corners: 7 – 0.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.