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Serie A · Serie A 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 315.2h before kickoff

Bologna vs Udinese

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Bologna host Udinese in Serie A. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Bologna collected 12 points (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). Udinese earned 2 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Bologna have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Udinese have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Bologna average 2.02 xG and 1.70 xGA over 5 recent matches; Udinese average 1.01 xG and 2.40 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Bologna in position 7 and Udinese in position 19. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

56.5%Home
24.1%Draw
19.3%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 56.5%

Total goals

56.0%Over 2.5
44.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

55.6%Yes
44.4%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Bologna 5/5, Udinese 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Serie A page →
Bologna
Position#7
Points17
Played11
Goal difference+2
Udinese
Position#19
Points7
Played11
Goal difference-9

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Bologna

LWWWW
2.40Points / match
2.20Goals / match
2.02xG / match
1.70xGA / match
VS

Udinese

DLDLL
0.40Points / match
0.60Goals / match
1.01xG / match
2.40xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Bologna at home
W-D-L1-2-2
Points / match1.00
Goals / match1.20
xG / match1.53
Udinese away
W-D-L1-2-2
Points / match1.00
Goals / match1.40
xG / match1.04

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Bologna

17 Oct24 Oct28 Oct31 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

Udinese

18 Oct25 Oct28 Oct31 Oct06 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Bologna expected goals

1.89

Udinese expected goals

1.03
1–111.4%
2–19.9%
2–09.6%
1–09.2%
0–06.3%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

23 Feb 2026Bologna — Udinese1–0
22 Nov 2025Udinese — Bologna0–3
28 Apr 2025Udinese — Bologna0–0
18 Aug 2024Bologna — Udinese1–1
28 Apr 2024Bologna — Udinese1–1

More Serie A match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.