Cagliari vs Bologna

Cagliari host Bologna in Serie A. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Cagliari collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). Bologna earned 5 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Cagliari have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Bologna have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Cagliari average 1.60 xG and 1.61 xGA over 4 recent matches; Bologna average 1.21 xG and 1.72 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Cagliari in position 7 and Bologna in position 16. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Bologna won 2–0 away to Cagliari. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 0.39 for Cagliari and 1.62 for Bologna. Bologna generated the higher xG total. Cagliari scored -0.39 goals relative to xG and Bologna scored +0.38 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Cagliari registered 4 shots, with 1 on target (shot accuracy: 25.0%); Bologna recorded 10 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 50.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (38.5%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Cagliari vs Bologna

Final score: 0–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 0.39 – 1.62.

Shots: 4 – 10.

Shots on target: 1 – 5.

Possession: 57.00% – 43.00%.

Corners: 1 – 6.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.