Napoli vs Roma

Napoli host Roma in Serie A. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Napoli collected 7 points (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). Roma earned 11 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Napoli have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Roma have 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Napoli average 2.12 xG and 1.39 xGA over 5 recent matches; Roma average 1.78 xG and 1.25 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Napoli in position 9 and Roma in position 3. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Napoli and Roma drew 3–3. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 2.34 for Napoli and 1.86 for Roma. Napoli generated the higher xG total. Napoli scored +0.66 goals relative to xG and Roma scored +1.14 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Napoli registered 15 shots, with 9 on target (shot accuracy: 60.0%); Roma recorded 24 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 16.7%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (42.5%); the actual outcome was Draw, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Napoli vs Roma

Final score: 3–3. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 2.34 – 1.86.

Shots: 15 – 24.

Shots on target: 9 – 4.

Possession: 39.00% – 61.00%.

Corners: 2 – 11.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.