Parma vs Bologna

Parma host Bologna in Serie A. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Parma collected 4 points (1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses). Bologna earned 12 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Parma have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Bologna have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Parma average 0.85 xG and 1.54 xGA over 5 recent matches; Bologna average 1.71 xG and 1.71 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Parma in position 19 and Bologna in position 8. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Bologna won 2–1 away to Parma. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.44 for Parma and 3.52 for Bologna. Bologna generated the higher xG total. Parma scored -0.44 goals relative to xG and Bologna scored -1.52 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Parma registered 11 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 18.2%); Bologna recorded 33 shots, with 10 on target (shot accuracy: 30.3%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (46.2%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Parma vs Bologna

Final score: 1–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.44 – 3.52.

Shots: 11 – 33.

Shots on target: 2 – 10.

Possession: 31.00% – 69.00%.

Corners: 1 – 15.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.