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Serie A · Serie A 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 315.2h before kickoff

Sassuolo vs Genoa

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Sassuolo host Genoa in Serie A. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Sassuolo collected 0 points (0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses). Genoa earned 9 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Sassuolo have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Genoa have 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Sassuolo average 0.83 xG and 2.70 xGA over 5 recent matches; Genoa average 0.84 xG and 1.19 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Sassuolo in position 17 and Genoa in position 12. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

30.9%Home
26.8%Draw
42.3%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 42.3%

Total goals

54.7%Over 2.5
45.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

58.7%Yes
41.3%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Sassuolo 5/5, Genoa 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Serie A page →
Sassuolo
Position#17
Points8
Played11
Goal difference-13
Genoa
Position#12
Points13
Played11
Goal difference-5

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Sassuolo

LLLLL
0.00Points / match
1.20Goals / match
0.83xG / match
2.70xGA / match
VS

Genoa

LWWWL
1.80Points / match
1.20Goals / match
0.84xG / match
1.19xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Sassuolo at home
W-D-L2-1-2
Points / match1.40
Goals / match2.00
xG / match1.14
Genoa away
W-D-L1-0-4
Points / match0.60
Goals / match0.60
xG / match0.71

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Sassuolo

16 Oct24 Oct27 Oct02 Nov07 Nov
xGxGA

Genoa

17 Oct25 Oct28 Oct01 Nov08 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Sassuolo expected goals

1.31

Genoa expected goals

1.56
1–112.6%
1–29.0%
0–17.8%
2–17.6%
0–26.9%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

12 Apr 2026Genoa — Sassuolo2–1
03 Nov 2025Sassuolo — Genoa1–2
12 May 2024Genoa — Sassuolo2–1
22 Dec 2023Sassuolo — Genoa1–2

More Serie A match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.