SmartMatchData
← All matches
Saudi Pro League · Saudi Pro League 26/27 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 82.1h before kickoff

Al-Ittihad vs Neom SC

· Postponed · provider status verified 12 Nov 2026 05:30 UTC

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Al-Ittihad host Neom SC in Saudi Pro League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Al-Ittihad collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). Neom SC earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Al-Ittihad have 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Neom SC have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Al-Ittihad average 1.88 xG and 1.32 xGA over 5 recent matches; Neom SC average 1.31 xG and 1.15 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Al-Ittihad in position 4 and Neom SC in position 5. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 2 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

54.4%Home
24.4%Draw
21.1%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 54.4%

Total goals

55.9%Over 2.5
44.1%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

56.4%Yes
43.6%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Al-Ittihad 5/5, Neom SC 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Saudi Pro League page →
Al-Ittihad
Position#4
Points24
Played11
Goal difference+10
Neom SC
Position#5
Points22
Played12
Goal difference+8

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Al-Ittihad

WLWWD
2.00Points / match
2.40Goals / match
1.88xG / match
1.32xGA / match
VS

Neom SC

DLLWW
1.40Points / match
1.00Goals / match
1.31xG / match
1.15xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Al-Ittihad at home
W-D-L4-1-0
Points / match2.60
Goals / match2.00
xG / match2.67
Neom SC away
W-D-L2-1-2
Points / match1.40
Goals / match1.00
xG / match1.26

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Al-Ittihad

11 Sep10 Oct20 Oct23 Oct30 Oct
xGxGA

Neom SC

10 Oct17 Oct20 Oct24 Oct30 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Al-Ittihad expected goals

1.84

Neom SC expected goals

1.08
1–111.7%
2–19.9%
2–09.1%
1–09.0%
0–06.3%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Al-Ittihad

30 OctDA · AbhaxG 1.23 · xGA 0.511–1
23 OctWH · Al-Diraiyah ClubxG 2.83 · xGA 0.982–0
20 OctWA · Al-EttifaqxG 2.93 · xGA 1.754–1
10 OctLA · Al-HilalxG 1.14 · xGA 2.262–3
11 SepWA · Al-FaisalyxG 1.29 · xGA 1.113–1

Neom SC

30 OctWA · Al-Diraiyah ClubxG 1.97 · xGA 1.362–1
24 OctWH · AbhaxG 1.58 · xGA 0.802–0
20 OctLA · Al-NassrxG 0.41 · xGA 2.780–1
17 OctLH · Al-EttifaqxG 0.70 · xGA 0.140–1
10 OctDA · Al-HazemxG 1.87 · xGA 0.661–1

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

08 Apr 2026Al-Ittihad — Neom SC3–4
31 Dec 2025Neom SC — Al-Ittihad1–3

More Saudi Pro League match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.