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Saudi Pro League · Saudi Pro League 26/27 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 103.1h before kickoff

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal

· Postponed · provider status verified 12 Nov 2026 05:30 UTC

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Al-Ettifaq host Al-Hilal in Saudi Pro League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Al-Ettifaq collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). Al-Hilal earned 15 points from 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Al-Ettifaq have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Al-Hilal have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Al-Ettifaq average 1.45 xG and 1.90 xGA over 5 recent matches; Al-Hilal average 3.46 xG and 0.80 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Al-Ettifaq in position 7 and Al-Hilal in position 1. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

10.7%Home
15.4%Draw
73.8%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 73.8%

Total goals

75.0%Over 2.5
25.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

62.2%Yes
37.8%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Al-Ettifaq 5/5, Al-Hilal 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Saudi Pro League page →
Al-Ettifaq
Position#7
Points19
Played12
Goal difference+1
Al-Hilal
Position#1
Points30
Played11
Goal difference+23

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Al-Ettifaq

DWLWD
1.60Points / match
1.40Goals / match
1.45xG / match
1.90xGA / match
VS

Al-Hilal

WWWWW
3.00Points / match
3.00Goals / match
3.46xG / match
0.80xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Al-Ettifaq at home
W-D-L0-2-3
Points / match0.40
Goals / match0.80
xG / match1.29
Al-Hilal away
W-D-L5-0-0
Points / match3.00
Goals / match3.80
xG / match4.11

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Al-Ettifaq

10 Oct17 Oct20 Oct24 Oct31 Oct
xGxGA

Al-Hilal

12 Sep10 Oct19 Oct23 Oct31 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Al-Ettifaq expected goals

1.06

Al-Hilal expected goals

2.86
1–28.6%
1–38.2%
0–28.1%
0–37.7%
1–16.6%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Al-Ettifaq

31 OctDA · Al-TaawounxG 2.08 · xGA 1.321–1
24 OctWA · Al-KholoodxG 1.26 · xGA 1.863–0
20 OctLH · Al-IttihadxG 1.75 · xGA 2.931–4
17 OctWA · Neom SCxG 0.14 · xGA 0.701–0
10 OctDH · Al-KhaleejxG 2.02 · xGA 2.671–1

Al-Hilal

31 OctWH · Al-FatehxG 3.67 · xGA 0.252–0
23 OctWA · Al-QadsiahxG 2.86 · xGA 0.793–2
19 OctWH · Al-HazemxG 3.12 · xGA 0.521–0
10 OctWH · Al-IttihadxG 2.26 · xGA 1.143–2
12 SepWA · Al-TaawounxG 5.41 · xGA 1.326–0

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

13 Feb 2026Al-Hilal — Al-Ettifaq2–0
18 Oct 2025Al-Ettifaq — Al-Hilal0–5
11 Apr 2025Al-Ettifaq — Al-Hilal1–1
08 Nov 2024Al-Hilal — Al-Ettifaq3–1
26 Feb 2024Al-Ettifaq — Al-Hilal0–2

More Saudi Pro League match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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