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Saudi Pro League · Saudi Pro League 26/27 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 79.5h before kickoff

Al-Hazem vs Al-Nassr

· Postponed · provider status verified 12 Nov 2026 05:30 UTC

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Al-Hazem host Al-Nassr in Saudi Pro League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Al-Hazem collected 2 points (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). Al-Nassr earned 13 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Al-Hazem have 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Al-Nassr have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Al-Hazem average 1.23 xG and 2.31 xGA over 5 recent matches; Al-Nassr average 2.29 xG and 0.92 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Al-Hazem in position 14 and Al-Nassr in position 3. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

15.6%Home
20.9%Draw
63.5%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 63.5%

Total goals

62.3%Over 2.5
37.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.4%Yes
42.6%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Al-Hazem 5/5, Al-Nassr 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Saudi Pro League page →
Al-Hazem
Position#14
Points10
Played12
Goal difference-6
Al-Nassr
Position#3
Points28
Played11
Goal difference+17

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Al-Hazem

DLLDL
0.40Points / match
1.40Goals / match
1.23xG / match
2.31xGA / match
VS

Al-Nassr

DWWWW
2.60Points / match
2.60Goals / match
2.29xG / match
0.92xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Al-Hazem at home
W-D-L1-3-1
Points / match1.20
Goals / match1.40
xG / match1.36
Al-Nassr away
W-D-L3-1-1
Points / match2.00
Goals / match2.40
xG / match1.57

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Al-Hazem

10 Oct15 Oct19 Oct22 Oct29 Oct
xGxGA

Al-Nassr

12 Sep09 Oct20 Oct23 Oct29 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Al-Hazem expected goals

1.01

Al-Nassr expected goals

2.20
1–29.9%
1–19.8%
0–29.7%
0–18.0%
1–37.2%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Al-Hazem

29 OctLA · Al-KhaleejxG 0.85 · xGA 2.812–4
22 OctDH · Al-FayhaxG 1.98 · xGA 1.162–2
19 OctLA · Al-HilalxG 0.52 · xGA 3.120–1
15 OctLH · Al-FatehxG 2.16 · xGA 2.602–3
10 OctDH · Neom SCxG 0.66 · xGA 1.871–1

Al-Nassr

29 OctWH · Al-KholoodxG 3.76 · xGA 1.965–3
23 OctWA · Al-FaisalyxG 0.58 · xGA 1.103–1
20 OctWH · Neom SCxG 2.78 · xGA 0.411–0
09 OctWH · Al-Diraiyah ClubxG 3.26 · xGA 0.773–0
12 SepDA · Al-KhaleejxG 1.08 · xGA 0.381–1

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

21 Feb 2026Al-Nassr — Al-Hazem4–0
25 Oct 2025Al-Hazem — Al-Nassr0–2
29 Feb 2024Al-Nassr — Al-Hazem4–4
02 Sep 2023Al-Hazem — Al-Nassr1–5

More Saudi Pro League match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.