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Saudi Pro League · Saudi Pro League 26/27 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 58.1h before kickoff

Al-Qadsiah vs Al-Fayha

· Postponed · provider status verified 12 Nov 2026 05:30 UTC

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Al-Qadsiah host Al-Fayha in Saudi Pro League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Al-Qadsiah collected 12 points (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). Al-Fayha earned 5 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Al-Qadsiah have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Al-Fayha have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Al-Qadsiah average 3.04 xG and 1.47 xGA over 5 recent matches; Al-Fayha average 0.91 xG and 2.12 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Al-Qadsiah in position 2 and Al-Fayha in position 13. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

78.2%Home
14.0%Draw
7.8%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 78.2%

Total goals

71.8%Over 2.5
28.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

54.5%Yes
45.5%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Al-Qadsiah 5/5, Al-Fayha 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Saudi Pro League page →
Al-Qadsiah
Position#2
Points28
Played12
Goal difference+20
Al-Fayha
Position#13
Points11
Played12
Goal difference-4

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Al-Qadsiah

WWWLW
2.40Points / match
3.20Goals / match
3.04xG / match
1.47xGA / match
VS

Al-Fayha

DLLDW
1.00Points / match
1.80Goals / match
0.91xG / match
2.12xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Al-Qadsiah at home
W-D-L3-1-1
Points / match2.00
Goals / match2.60
xG / match1.98
Al-Fayha away
W-D-L0-3-2
Points / match0.60
Goals / match0.60
xG / match0.87

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Al-Qadsiah

09 Oct16 Oct20 Oct23 Oct29 Oct
xGxGA

Al-Fayha

11 Oct15 Oct19 Oct22 Oct31 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Al-Qadsiah expected goals

2.87

Al-Fayha expected goals

0.85
2–010.0%
3–09.6%
2–18.5%
3–18.1%
4–06.9%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Al-Qadsiah

29 OctWA · Al-RiyadhxG 5.19 · xGA 1.346–0
23 OctLH · Al-HilalxG 0.79 · xGA 2.862–3
20 OctWA · Al-TaawounxG 2.14 · xGA 0.401–0
16 OctWH · AbhaxG 1.58 · xGA 0.352–1
09 OctWA · Al-KholoodxG 5.48 · xGA 2.405–0

Al-Fayha

31 OctWH · Al-FaisalyxG 1.24 · xGA 1.034–1
22 OctDA · Al-HazemxG 1.16 · xGA 1.982–2
19 OctLH · Al-AhlixG 0.62 · xGA 4.122–3
15 OctLA · Al-KhaleejxG 0.92 · xGA 1.990–2
11 OctDH · Al-RiyadhxG 0.61 · xGA 1.501–1

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

09 May 2026Al-Fayha — Al-Qadsiah1–2
14 Jan 2026Al-Qadsiah — Al-Fayha5–0
12 Apr 2025Al-Fayha — Al-Qadsiah2–1
07 Nov 2024Al-Qadsiah — Al-Fayha2–0

More Saudi Pro League match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.