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Saudi Pro League · Saudi Pro League 26/27 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 55.8h before kickoff

Abha vs Al-Shabab

· Postponed · provider status verified 12 Nov 2026 05:30 UTC

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Abha host Al-Shabab in Saudi Pro League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Abha collected 2 points (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). Al-Shabab earned 11 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Abha have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Al-Shabab have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Abha average 0.80 xG and 1.34 xGA over 5 recent matches; Al-Shabab average 2.43 xG and 1.00 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Abha in position 18 and Al-Shabab in position 10. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 2 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

21.2%Home
25.8%Draw
53.1%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 53.1%

Total goals

50.8%Over 2.5
49.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

52.7%Yes
47.3%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Abha 5/5, Al-Shabab 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Saudi Pro League page →
Abha
Position#18
Points3
Played11
Goal difference-12
Al-Shabab
Position#10
Points14
Played11
Goal difference+5

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Abha

DLLLD
0.40Points / match
0.40Goals / match
0.80xG / match
1.34xGA / match
VS

Al-Shabab

DWDWW
2.20Points / match
2.80Goals / match
2.43xG / match
1.00xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Abha at home
W-D-L0-2-3
Points / match0.40
Goals / match0.60
xG / match0.81
Al-Shabab away
W-D-L1-2-2
Points / match1.00
Goals / match1.00
xG / match1.49

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Abha

13 Sep16 Oct24 Oct27 Oct30 Oct
xGxGA

Al-Shabab

12 Sep11 Oct19 Oct22 Oct30 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Abha expected goals

1.00

Al-Shabab expected goals

1.71
1–112.4%
0–110.4%
1–29.7%
0–29.7%
0–07.7%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Abha

30 OctDH · Al-IttihadxG 0.51 · xGA 1.231–1
27 OctLH · Al-FaisalyxG 1.68 · xGA 0.950–1
24 OctLA · Neom SCxG 0.80 · xGA 1.580–2
16 OctLA · Al-QadsiahxG 0.35 · xGA 1.581–2
13 SepDA · Al-Diraiyah ClubxG 0.68 · xGA 1.350–0

Al-Shabab

30 OctWH · Al-AhlixG 4.25 · xGA 1.006–1
22 OctWA · Al-FatehxG 3.20 · xGA 1.043–1
19 OctDH · Al-FaisalyxG 1.27 · xGA 1.542–2
11 OctWH · Al-TaawounxG 2.34 · xGA 0.903–0
12 SepDH · Al-FayhaxG 1.09 · xGA 0.540–0

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

18 Apr 2024Al-Shabab — Abha5–0
28 Oct 2023Abha — Al-Shabab2–1

More Saudi Pro League match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.