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Saudi Pro League · Saudi Pro League 26/27 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 79.1h before kickoff

Al-Fateh vs Al-Riyadh

· Postponed · provider status verified 12 Nov 2026 05:30 UTC

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Al-Fateh host Al-Riyadh in Saudi Pro League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Al-Fateh collected 3 points (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). Al-Riyadh earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Al-Fateh have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Al-Riyadh have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Al-Fateh average 1.00 xG and 2.52 xGA over 5 recent matches; Al-Riyadh average 1.25 xG and 1.65 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Al-Fateh in position 16 and Al-Riyadh in position 12. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

36.0%Home
26.4%Draw
37.6%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 37.6%

Total goals

56.3%Over 2.5
43.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

60.2%Yes
39.8%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Al-Fateh 5/5, Al-Riyadh 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Saudi Pro League page →
Al-Fateh
Position#16
Points6
Played12
Goal difference-15
Al-Riyadh
Position#12
Points12
Played11
Goal difference-14

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Al-Fateh

LWLLL
0.60Points / match
1.20Goals / match
1.00xG / match
2.52xGA / match
VS

Al-Riyadh

WDLWL
1.40Points / match
1.00Goals / match
1.25xG / match
1.65xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Al-Fateh at home
W-D-L0-1-4
Points / match0.20
Goals / match0.80
xG / match0.88
Al-Riyadh away
W-D-L0-3-2
Points / match0.60
Goals / match0.80
xG / match0.94

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Al-Fateh

09 Oct15 Oct18 Oct22 Oct31 Oct
xGxGA

Al-Riyadh

13 Sep11 Oct20 Oct24 Oct29 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Al-Fateh expected goals

1.45

Al-Riyadh expected goals

1.49
1–112.5%
1–28.5%
2–18.3%
0–16.8%
1–06.7%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Al-Fateh

31 OctLA · Al-HilalxG 0.25 · xGA 3.670–2
22 OctLH · Al-ShababxG 1.04 · xGA 3.201–3
18 OctLH · Al-KhaleejxG 0.65 · xGA 1.022–3
15 OctWA · Al-HazemxG 2.60 · xGA 2.163–2
09 OctLH · Al-AhlixG 0.45 · xGA 2.540–4

Al-Riyadh

29 OctLH · Al-QadsiahxG 1.34 · xGA 5.190–6
24 OctWH · Al-TaawounxG 1.49 · xGA 0.412–1
20 OctLA · Al-Diraiyah ClubxG 0.88 · xGA 1.370–1
11 OctDA · Al-FayhaxG 1.50 · xGA 0.611–1
13 SepWH · Al-KholoodxG 1.06 · xGA 0.692–0

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

10 May 2026Al-Riyadh — Al-Fateh1–0
13 Jan 2026Al-Fateh — Al-Riyadh3–1
23 Apr 2025Al-Riyadh — Al-Fateh2–2
28 Nov 2024Al-Fateh — Al-Riyadh1–2
02 May 2024Al-Fateh — Al-Riyadh2–2

More Saudi Pro League match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.