SmartMatchData
← All matches
Saudi Pro League · Saudi Pro League 26/27 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 106.1h before kickoff

Al-Ahli vs Al-Taawoun

· Postponed · provider status verified 12 Nov 2026 05:30 UTC

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Al-Ahli host Al-Taawoun in Saudi Pro League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Al-Ahli collected 12 points (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). Al-Taawoun earned 2 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Al-Ahli have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Al-Taawoun have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Al-Ahli average 3.48 xG and 1.52 xGA over 5 recent matches; Al-Taawoun average 0.80 xG and 2.00 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Al-Ahli in position 6 and Al-Taawoun in position 17. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

83.3%Home
11.5%Draw
5.2%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 83.3%

Total goals

72.8%Over 2.5
27.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

48.9%Yes
51.1%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Al-Ahli 5/5, Al-Taawoun 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Saudi Pro League page →
Al-Ahli
Position#6
Points21
Played11
Goal difference+9
Al-Taawoun
Position#17
Points5
Played12
Goal difference-14

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Al-Ahli

WWWWL
2.40Points / match
3.00Goals / match
3.48xG / match
1.52xGA / match
VS

Al-Taawoun

LDLLD
0.40Points / match
0.60Goals / match
0.80xG / match
2.00xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Al-Ahli at home
W-D-L5-0-0
Points / match3.00
Goals / match3.80
xG / match3.51
Al-Taawoun away
W-D-L0-1-4
Points / match0.20
Goals / match0.60
xG / match0.79

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Al-Ahli

11 Sep09 Oct19 Oct23 Oct30 Oct
xGxGA

Al-Taawoun

11 Oct17 Oct20 Oct24 Oct31 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Al-Ahli expected goals

3.07

Al-Taawoun expected goals

0.71
3–011.0%
2–010.8%
4–08.5%
3–17.9%
2–17.7%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Al-Ahli

30 OctLA · Al-ShababxG 1.00 · xGA 4.251–6
23 OctWH · Al-KhaleejxG 3.94 · xGA 0.504–1
19 OctWA · Al-FayhaxG 4.12 · xGA 0.623–2
09 OctWA · Al-FatehxG 2.54 · xGA 0.454–0
11 SepWH · Al-HazemxG 5.78 · xGA 1.783–1

Al-Taawoun

31 OctDH · Al-EttifaqxG 1.32 · xGA 2.081–1
24 OctLA · Al-RiyadhxG 0.41 · xGA 1.491–2
20 OctLH · Al-QadsiahxG 0.40 · xGA 2.140–1
17 OctDA · Al-Diraiyah ClubxG 0.96 · xGA 1.961–1
11 OctLA · Al-ShababxG 0.90 · xGA 2.340–3

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

11 May 2026Al-Taawoun — Al-Ahli1–2
14 Jan 2026Al-Ahli — Al-Taawoun2–1
07 May 2025Al-Ahli — Al-Taawoun2–0
07 Dec 2024Al-Taawoun — Al-Ahli2–4
09 Mar 2024Al-Taawoun — Al-Ahli0–1

More Saudi Pro League match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.