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International Friendlies · International Friendlies 2026 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 52.8h before kickoff

Uzbekistan vs Russia

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan

🇷🇺 Russia

Thu, 12 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Uzbekistan host Russia in International Friendlies. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Uzbekistan collected 6 points (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). Russia earned 13 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Uzbekistan have 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 3 recorded home matches. On the road, Russia have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across 1 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

16.0%Home

27.9%Draw

56.1%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 56.1%

Total goals

53.0%Over 2.5

47.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

46.2%Yes

53.8%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

International Friendlies page →

Uzbekistan

No pre-match table context available.

Russia

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Uzbekistan

LLWWL

1.20Points / match

1.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Russia

WWWWD

2.60Points / match

3.40Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Uzbekistan at home

W-D-L2-1-0

Points / match2.33

Goals / match3.00

xG / match—

Russia away

W-D-L0-0-1

Points / match0.00

Goals / match0.00

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Uzbekistan.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Russia.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Uzbekistan expected goals

0.83

Russia expected goals

1.70

0–112.6%

1–112.3%

0–211.5%

1–29.5%

0–09.0%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.