SmartMatchData
← All matches
International Friendlies · International Friendlies 2026 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 54.8h before kickoff

Lithuania vs Suriname

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Lithuania host Suriname in International Friendlies. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

10.4%Home
24.5%Draw
65.1%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 65.1%

Total goals

35.7%Over 2.5
64.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

42.8%Yes
57.2%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

International Friendlies page →
Lithuania
No pre-match table context available.
Suriname
No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Lithuania

WLW
2.00Points / match
1.67Goals / match
—xG / match
—xGA / match
VS

Suriname

No history
—Points / match
—Goals / match
—xG / match
—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Lithuania at home
W-D-L1-0-1
Points / match1.50
Goals / match1.50
xG / match—
Suriname away
W-D-L0-0-0
Points / match—
Goals / match—
xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Lithuania.
Not enough full-quality xG history for Suriname.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Lithuania expected goals

0.68

Suriname expected goals

1.63
0–115.1%
0–213.1%
1–112.0%
0–010.9%
1–29.0%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Lithuania

30 SepWH · AndorraxG — · xGA —3–0
29 MarLH · GeorgiaxG — · xGA —0–2
26 MarWA · MoldovaxG — · xGA —2–0

Suriname

No previous league matches in the database.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

More International Friendlies match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.