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Eredivisie · Eredivisie 26/27 Model vnext-shadow-2026-10 · locked 297.3h before kickoff

SC Telstar vs PEC Zwolle

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

SC Telstar host PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, SC Telstar collected 5 points (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). PEC Zwolle earned 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, SC Telstar have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, PEC Zwolle have 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, SC Telstar average 1.71 xG and 1.89 xGA over 5 recent matches; PEC Zwolle average 1.18 xG and 1.28 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places SC Telstar in position 16 and PEC Zwolle in position 13. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 2 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

45.0%Home
25.1%Draw
30.0%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 45.0%

Total goals

60.4%Over 2.5
39.6%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

62.6%Yes
37.4%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches SC Telstar 5/5, PEC Zwolle 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Eredivisie page →
SC Telstar
Position#16
Points10
Played12
Goal difference-7
PEC Zwolle
Position#13
Points12
Played12
Goal difference-11

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

SC Telstar

DLLWD
1.00Points / match
2.60Goals / match
1.71xG / match
1.89xGA / match
VS

PEC Zwolle

LWDWD
1.60Points / match
1.40Goals / match
1.18xG / match
1.28xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

SC Telstar at home
W-D-L1-2-2
Points / match1.00
Goals / match2.20
xG / match1.99
PEC Zwolle away
W-D-L1-3-1
Points / match1.20
Goals / match1.20
xG / match0.97

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

SC Telstar

11 Oct17 Oct23 Oct01 Nov07 Nov
xGxGA

PEC Zwolle

11 Oct18 Oct24 Oct01 Nov06 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

SC Telstar expected goals

1.74

PEC Zwolle expected goals

1.39
1–111.6%
2–19.2%
1–27.4%
1–06.7%
2–06.6%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

SC Telstar

07 NovDA · Fortuna SittardxG 0.79 · xGA 1.872–201 NovWH · FC UtrechtxG 2.45 · xGA 1.284–223 OctLA · Go Ahead EaglesxG 1.05 · xGA 1.102–3
17 OctLH · FeyenoordxG 1.39 · xGA 3.813–4
11 OctDH · ADO Den HaagxG 2.86 · xGA 1.382–2

PEC Zwolle

06 NovDA · Willem II TilburgxG 0.79 · xGA 0.731–101 NovWH · ADO Den HaagxG 1.44 · xGA 0.501–024 OctDA · FC UtrechtxG 0.91 · xGA 1.631–1
18 OctWH · Go Ahead EaglesxG 1.77 · xGA 2.744–1
11 OctLH · SC CambuurxG 0.98 · xGA 0.820–1

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

31 Jan 2026PEC Zwolle — SC Telstar4–1
15 Aug 2025SC Telstar — PEC Zwolle0–2

More Eredivisie match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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