FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle

FC Utrecht host PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, FC Utrecht collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). PEC Zwolle earned 4 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, FC Utrecht have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, PEC Zwolle have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, FC Utrecht average 1.40 xG and 1.55 xGA over 5 recent matches; PEC Zwolle average 0.92 xG and 2.09 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places FC Utrecht in position 12 and PEC Zwolle in position 15. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

FC Utrecht and PEC Zwolle drew 1–1. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.63 for FC Utrecht and 0.91 for PEC Zwolle. FC Utrecht generated the higher xG total. FC Utrecht scored -0.63 goals relative to xG and PEC Zwolle scored +0.09 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

FC Utrecht registered 23 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 21.7%); PEC Zwolle recorded 9 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 55.6%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (56.6%); the actual outcome was Draw, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle

Final score: 1–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.63 – 0.91.

Shots: 23 – 9.

Shots on target: 5 – 5.

Possession: 59.00% – 41.00%.

Corners: 7 – 2.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.