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International Friendlies · International Friendlies 2026 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 86.8h before kickoff

Peru vs Bolivia

🇵🇪 Peru

🇧🇴 Bolivia

Sat, 14 Nov 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Peru host Bolivia in International Friendlies. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Peru collected 1 points (0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses). Bolivia earned 3 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Peru have 0 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 1 recorded home matches. On the road, Bolivia have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across 1 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

55.9%Home

26.5%Draw

17.6%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 55.9%

Total goals

43.2%Over 2.5

56.8%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

41.2%Yes

58.8%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

International Friendlies page →

Peru

No pre-match table context available.

Bolivia

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Peru

LLDLL

0.20Points / match

0.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Bolivia

LWLLL

0.60Points / match

0.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Peru at home

W-D-L0-1-0

Points / match1.00

Goals / match2.00

xG / match—

Bolivia away

W-D-L0-0-1

Points / match0.00

Goals / match0.00

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Peru.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Bolivia.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Peru expected goals

1.48

Bolivia expected goals

0.73

1–015.1%

1–112.9%

0–012.0%

2–012.0%

2–18.8%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.