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International Friendlies · International Friendlies 2026 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 85.8h before kickoff

Colombia vs Chile

🇨🇴 Colombia

🇨🇱 Chile

Sat, 14 Nov 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Colombia host Chile in International Friendlies. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Colombia collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). Chile earned 6 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Colombia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Chile have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

79.3%Home

16.6%Draw

4.0%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 79.3%

Total goals

46.7%Over 2.5

53.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

43.8%Yes

56.2%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

International Friendlies page →

Colombia

No pre-match table context available.

Chile

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Colombia

WWDLW

2.00Points / match

1.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Chile

LWLLW

1.20Points / match

1.40Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Colombia at home

W-D-L3-0-2

Points / match1.80

Goals / match1.60

xG / match—

Chile away

W-D-L2-0-3

Points / match1.20

Goals / match1.40

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Colombia.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Chile.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Colombia expected goals

2.44

Chile expected goals

0.47

2–016.1%

3–013.1%

1–012.7%

4–08.0%

2–17.7%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.