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International Friendlies · International Friendlies 2026 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 84.8h before kickoff

Argentina vs Uruguay

🇦🇷 Argentina

🇺🇾 Uruguay

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Argentina host Uruguay in International Friendlies. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Argentina collected 15 points (5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses). Uruguay earned 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Argentina have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Uruguay have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

74.3%Home

19.8%Draw

5.9%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 74.3%

Total goals

61.1%Over 2.5

38.9%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

50.1%Yes

49.9%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

International Friendlies page →

Argentina

No pre-match table context available.

Uruguay

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Argentina

WWWWW

3.00Points / match

3.80Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Uruguay

DDLWW

1.60Points / match

2.40Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Argentina at home

W-D-L5-0-0

Points / match3.00

Goals / match3.80

xG / match—

Uruguay away

W-D-L2-2-1

Points / match1.60

Goals / match2.40

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Argentina.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Uruguay.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Argentina expected goals

2.48

Uruguay expected goals

0.64

2–013.5%

3–011.2%

1–010.3%

2–18.7%

1–17.7%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.