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International Friendlies · International Friendlies 2026 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 85.8h before kickoff

Ecuador vs Costa Rica

🇪🇨 Ecuador

🇨🇷 Costa Rica

Sat, 14 Nov 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Ecuador host Costa Rica in International Friendlies. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Ecuador collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). Costa Rica earned 1 points from 4 matches (0 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Ecuador have 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 3 recorded home matches. On the road, Costa Rica have 0 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 4 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

43.6%Home

32.3%Draw

24.1%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 43.6%

Total goals

45.7%Over 2.5

54.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

45.9%Yes

54.1%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

International Friendlies page →

Ecuador

No pre-match table context available.

Costa Rica

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Ecuador

WWLDD

1.60Points / match

1.20Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Costa Rica

DLLL

0.25Points / match

0.75Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Ecuador at home

W-D-L2-1-0

Points / match2.33

Goals / match2.00

xG / match—

Costa Rica away

W-D-L0-1-3

Points / match0.25

Goals / match0.75

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Ecuador.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Costa Rica.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Ecuador expected goals

1.37

Costa Rica expected goals

0.88

1–113.9%

1–013.4%

0–011.7%

2–09.9%

2–18.7%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.