Sunderland vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Pre-match analysis and preview
Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.
Sunderland host GNK Dinamo Zagreb in UEFA Europa League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.
Across their last 3 recorded league matches, Sunderland collected 7 points (2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). GNK Dinamo Zagreb earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.
At home, Sunderland have 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in their last 1 recorded home matches. On the road, GNK Dinamo Zagreb have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.
Where full-quality xG is available, Sunderland average 2.50 xG and 1.28 xGA over 3 recent matches; GNK Dinamo Zagreb average 1.67 xG and 1.51 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.
This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.
Model prediction
Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.
1X2
Total goals
Both teams to score
Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Sunderland 5/5, GNK Dinamo Zagreb 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.
Pre-match league context
Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.
Recent form comparison
Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.
Sunderland
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Home / away form
Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.
xG trends
Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.
Sunderland
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Expected goals & scorelines
Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.
Sunderland expected goals
GNK Dinamo Zagreb expected goals
Recent matches
The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.
Sunderland
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Head to head
Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.
Post-match analysis
Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.
GNK Dinamo Zagreb won 2–0 away to Sunderland. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.
Expected goals were 1.60 for Sunderland and 1.29 for GNK Dinamo Zagreb. Sunderland generated the higher xG total. Sunderland scored -1.60 goals relative to xG and GNK Dinamo Zagreb scored +0.71 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.
Sunderland registered 17 shots, with 7 on target (shot accuracy: 41.2%); GNK Dinamo Zagreb recorded 9 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 44.4%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.
The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (46.2%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.
Post-match statistical review
Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.
Sunderland vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Final score: 0–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.
Expected goals (xG): 1.60 – 1.29.
Shots: 17 – 9.
Shots on target: 7 – 4.
Possession: 62.00% – 38.00%.
Corners: 5 – 3.
Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.
Forward result
The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.
More UEFA Europa League match analysis
Nearby locked predictions from the same season.
Continue exploring
Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.