Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille

Bayer 04 Leverkusen host Olympique de Marseille in UEFA Europa League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Bayer 04 Leverkusen collected 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). Olympique de Marseille earned 1 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Olympique de Marseille have 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 3.12 xG and 1.05 xGA over 5 recent matches; Olympique de Marseille average 0.82 xG and 1.53 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Olympique de Marseille won 1–0 away to Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 0.91 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 0.88 for Olympique de Marseille. Bayer 04 Leverkusen generated the higher xG total. Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored -0.91 goals relative to xG and Olympique de Marseille scored +0.12 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen registered 10 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 30.0%); Olympique de Marseille recorded 8 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 25.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (64.0%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille

Final score: 0–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 0.91 – 0.88.

Shots: 10 – 8.

Shots on target: 3 – 2.

Possession: 58.00% – 42.00%.

Corners: 6 – 2.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.