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MLS · MLS 2026 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 112.6h before kickoff

Seattle Sounders FC vs Los Angeles FC

· Final

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Seattle Sounders FC host Los Angeles FC in MLS. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Seattle Sounders FC collected 2 points (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). Los Angeles FC earned 6 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Seattle Sounders FC have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Los Angeles FC have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Seattle Sounders FC average 1.65 xG and 1.51 xGA over 5 recent matches; Los Angeles FC average 1.93 xG and 0.97 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Seattle Sounders FC in position 18 and Los Angeles FC in position 11. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

45.9%Home
24.5%Draw
29.6%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 45.9%

Total goals

62.7%Over 2.5
37.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

64.3%Yes
35.7%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Seattle Sounders FC 5/5, Los Angeles FC 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

MLS page →
Seattle Sounders FC
Position#18
Points43
Played33
Goal difference-3
Los Angeles FC
Position#11
Points48
Played34
Goal difference+13

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Seattle Sounders FC

LDDLL
0.40Points / match
0.80Goals / match
1.65xG / match
1.51xGA / match
VS

Los Angeles FC

DWDDL
1.20Points / match
1.60Goals / match
1.93xG / match
0.97xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Seattle Sounders FC at home
W-D-L3-1-1
Points / match2.00
Goals / match1.60
xG / match1.72
Los Angeles FC away
W-D-L0-3-2
Points / match0.60
Goals / match1.20
xG / match1.42

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Seattle Sounders FC

15 Oct18 Oct25 Oct29 Oct01 Nov
xGxGA

Los Angeles FC

11 Oct15 Oct17 Oct26 Oct02 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Seattle Sounders FC expected goals

1.81

Los Angeles FC expected goals

1.42
1–111.1%
2–19.2%
1–27.2%
2–26.5%
2–06.5%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Seattle Sounders FC

01 NovLA · Vancouver WhitecapsxG 1.25 · xGA 2.431–5
29 OctLH · Houston DynamoxG 1.84 · xGA 0.300–1
25 OctDA · San Diego FCxG 1.35 · xGA 2.372–2
18 OctDH · CF MontréalxG 1.84 · xGA 1.471–1
15 OctLA · FC DallasxG 1.99 · xGA 0.990–1

Los Angeles FC

02 NovLH · Minnesota UnitedxG 0.77 · xGA 0.621–3
26 OctDH · LA GalaxyxG 2.68 · xGA 1.682–2
17 OctDA · New York City FCxG 0.64 · xGA 0.691–1
15 OctWH · Austin FCxG 4.46 · xGA 0.683–1
11 OctDH · Vancouver WhitecapsxG 1.12 · xGA 1.201–1

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

25 May 2026Los Angeles FC — Seattle Sounders FC1–0
15 May 2025Los Angeles FC — Seattle Sounders FC4–0
08 Mar 2025Seattle Sounders FC — Los Angeles FC5–2
24 Nov 2024Los Angeles FC — Seattle Sounders FC1–1
21 Jul 2024Seattle Sounders FC — Los Angeles FC0–3

Post-match analysis

Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.

Seattle Sounders FC won 2–1 against Los Angeles FC. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 0.53 for Seattle Sounders FC and 1.88 for Los Angeles FC. Los Angeles FC generated the higher xG total. Seattle Sounders FC scored +1.47 goals relative to xG and Los Angeles FC scored -0.88 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Seattle Sounders FC registered 5 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 40.0%); Los Angeles FC recorded 24 shots, with 8 on target (shot accuracy: 33.3%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (45.9%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Post-match statistical review

Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.

Seattle Sounders FC vs Los Angeles FC

Final score: 2–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 0.53 – 1.88.

Shots: 5 – 24.

Shots on target: 2 – 8.

Possession: 39.00% – 61.00%.

Corners: 2 – 12.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.

Forward result

The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.

Model performance →
✓ Hit1X2 · predicted Home, actual Home
✓ HitOver 2.5 · predicted Over, actual Over
✓ HitBTTS · predicted Yes, actual Yes

More MLS match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.