Houston Dynamo vs St.Louis City

Houston Dynamo host St.Louis City in MLS. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Houston Dynamo collected 6 points (1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses). St.Louis City earned 1 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Houston Dynamo have 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, St.Louis City have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Houston Dynamo average 0.56 xG and 2.20 xGA over 5 recent matches; St.Louis City average 1.27 xG and 2.08 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Houston Dynamo in position 10 and St.Louis City in position 9. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

St.Louis City won 1–0 away to Houston Dynamo. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.30 for Houston Dynamo and 0.87 for St.Louis City. Houston Dynamo generated the higher xG total. Houston Dynamo scored -1.30 goals relative to xG and St.Louis City scored +0.13 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Houston Dynamo registered 23 shots, with 6 on target (shot accuracy: 26.1%); St.Louis City recorded 13 shots, with 1 on target (shot accuracy: 7.7%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (43.4%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Houston Dynamo vs St.Louis City

Final score: 0–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.30 – 0.87.

Shots: 23 – 13.

Shots on target: 6 – 1.

Possession: 41.00% – 59.00%.

Corners: 9 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.