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International Friendlies · International Friendlies 2026 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 76.3h before kickoff

Saudi Arabia vs South Korea

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia

🇰🇷 South Korea

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Saudi Arabia host South Korea in International Friendlies. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Saudi Arabia collected 4 points (1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses). South Korea earned 10 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Saudi Arabia have 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses in their last 2 recorded home matches. On the road, South Korea have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across 1 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

21.6%Home

29.9%Draw

48.6%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 48.6%

Total goals

41.1%Over 2.5

58.9%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

45.1%Yes

54.9%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

International Friendlies page →

Saudi Arabia

No pre-match table context available.

South Korea

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Saudi Arabia

LLLWD

0.80Points / match

1.00Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

South Korea

WWLDW

2.00Points / match

1.40Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Saudi Arabia at home

W-D-L1-0-1

Points / match1.50

Goals / match1.50

xG / match—

South Korea away

W-D-L0-0-1

Points / match0.00

Goals / match0.00

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Saudi Arabia.

Not enough full-quality xG history for South Korea.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Saudi Arabia expected goals

0.91

South Korea expected goals

1.20

1–114.4%

0–113.3%

0–013.3%

1–09.8%

0–28.7%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.