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International Friendlies · International Friendlies 2026 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 76.8h before kickoff

Iraq vs Lebanon

🇮🇶 Iraq

🇱🇧 Lebanon

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Iraq host Lebanon in International Friendlies. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 2 recorded league matches, Iraq collected 1 points (0 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). Lebanon earned 3 points from 2 matches (1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Iraq have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses in their last 1 recorded home matches. On the road, Lebanon have 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across 2 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

30.1%Home

23.3%Draw

46.7%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 46.7%

Total goals

53.9%Over 2.5

46.1%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

46.0%Yes

54.0%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

International Friendlies page →

Iraq

No pre-match table context available.

Lebanon

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Iraq

0.50Points / match

0.50Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Lebanon

1.50Points / match

3.50Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Iraq at home

W-D-L0-0-1

Points / match0.00

Goals / match0.00

xG / match—

Lebanon away

W-D-L1-0-1

Points / match1.50

Goals / match3.50

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Iraq.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Lebanon.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Iraq expected goals

1.00

Lebanon expected goals

1.34

1–114.1%

0–111.7%

0–010.7%

1–28.7%

0–28.6%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.