Roma vs Cagliari

Roma host Cagliari in Serie A. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Roma collected 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses). Cagliari earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Roma have 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Cagliari have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Roma average 1.56 xG and 1.58 xGA over 5 recent matches; Cagliari average 1.30 xG and 1.89 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Roma in position 3 and Cagliari in position 7. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Roma won 4–2 against Cagliari. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 3.02 for Roma and 2.40 for Cagliari. Roma generated the higher xG total. Roma scored +0.98 goals relative to xG and Cagliari scored -0.40 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Roma registered 20 shots, with 8 on target (shot accuracy: 40.0%); Cagliari recorded 19 shots, with 8 on target (shot accuracy: 42.1%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (67.0%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Roma vs Cagliari

Final score: 4–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 3.02 – 2.40.

Shots: 20 – 19.

Shots on target: 8 – 8.

Possession: 61.00% – 39.00%.

Corners: 7 – 8.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.