Home›Matches›UEFA Nations League›Luxembourg vs Estonia

UEFA Nations League · UEFA Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 81.5h before kickoff

Luxembourg vs Estonia

🇱🇺 Luxembourg

🇪🇪 Estonia

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Luxembourg host Estonia in UEFA Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Luxembourg collected 6 points (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). Estonia earned 6 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Luxembourg have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Estonia have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Luxembourg average 1.06 xG and 1.57 xGA over 4 recent matches; Estonia average 1.12 xG and 0.88 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

37.0%Home

30.5%Draw

32.5%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 37.0%

Total goals

41.2%Over 2.5

58.8%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

40.5%Yes

59.5%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Nations League page →

Luxembourg

No pre-match table context available.

Estonia

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Luxembourg

WWLLL

1.20Points / match

1.00Goals / match

1.06xG / match

1.57xGA / match

Estonia

LDDWD

1.20Points / match

0.40Goals / match

1.12xG / match

0.88xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Luxembourg at home

W-D-L1-1-3

Points / match0.80

Goals / match1.00

xG / match1.07

Estonia away

W-D-L0-3-2

Points / match0.60

Goals / match0.20

xG / match0.90

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Luxembourg

xGxGA

Estonia

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Luxembourg expected goals

1.15

Estonia expected goals

0.99

1–114.6%

0–013.0%

1–012.3%

0–110.5%

2–07.7%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.