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UEFA Nations League · UEFA Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 81.5h before kickoff

Bulgaria vs Iceland

🇧🇬 Bulgaria

🇮🇸 Iceland

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Bulgaria host Iceland in UEFA Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Bulgaria collected 4 points (1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses). Iceland earned 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Bulgaria have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Iceland have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Bulgaria average 1.12 xG and 1.73 xGA over 4 recent matches; Iceland average 1.83 xG and 0.97 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

16.4%Home

30.0%Draw

53.5%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 53.5%

Total goals

47.3%Over 2.5

52.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

47.3%Yes

52.7%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Nations League page →

Bulgaria

No pre-match table context available.

Iceland

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Bulgaria

LLDLW

0.80Points / match

0.80Goals / match

1.12xG / match

1.73xGA / match

Iceland

LDWWD

1.60Points / match

1.60Goals / match

1.83xG / match

0.97xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Bulgaria at home

W-D-L0-3-2

Points / match0.60

Goals / match0.60

xG / match1.23

Iceland away

W-D-L2-1-2

Points / match1.40

Goals / match1.40

xG / match1.45

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Bulgaria

xGxGA

Iceland

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Bulgaria expected goals

0.88

Iceland expected goals

1.50

1–113.3%

0–112.8%

0–210.4%

0–010.4%

1–29.2%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.