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UEFA Nations League · UEFA Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 81.5h before kickoff

Andorra vs Gibraltar

🇦🇩 Andorra

🇬🇮 Gibraltar

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Andorra host Gibraltar in UEFA Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Andorra collected 2 points (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). Gibraltar earned 3 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Andorra have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Gibraltar have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Andorra average 0.69 xG and 1.50 xGA over 3 recent matches; Gibraltar average 0.29 xG and 1.40 xGA over 2 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

38.4%Home

25.2%Draw

36.4%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 38.4%

Total goals

38.0%Over 2.5

62.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

35.5%Yes

64.5%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Nations League page →

Andorra

No pre-match table context available.

Gibraltar

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Andorra

LDLDL

0.40Points / match

0.20Goals / match

0.69xG / match

1.50xGA / match

Gibraltar

DLLDD

0.60Points / match

0.40Goals / match

0.29xG / match

1.40xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Andorra at home

W-D-L1-1-3

Points / match0.80

Goals / match0.80

xG / match0.76

Gibraltar away

W-D-L0-3-2

Points / match0.60

Goals / match0.40

xG / match0.30

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Andorra

xGxGA

Gibraltar

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Andorra expected goals

1.06

Gibraltar expected goals

0.96

1–114.7%

0–014.5%

1–012.8%

0–111.5%

2–07.4%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.