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International Friendlies · International Friendlies 2026 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 95.1h before kickoff

Japan vs Brazil

🇯🇵 Japan

🇧🇷 Brazil

Sat, 14 Nov 2026 · 10:15 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Japan host Brazil in International Friendlies. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Japan collected 13 points (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). Brazil earned 13 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Japan have 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Brazil have 3 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses across 4 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

24.5%Home

34.8%Draw

40.8%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 40.8%

Total goals

51.9%Over 2.5

48.1%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

53.7%Yes

46.3%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

International Friendlies page →

Japan

No pre-match table context available.

Brazil

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Japan

WWWDW

2.60Points / match

1.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Brazil

WWDWW

2.60Points / match

3.40Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Japan at home

W-D-L4-1-0

Points / match2.60

Goals / match1.60

xG / match—

Brazil away

W-D-L3-1-0

Points / match2.50

Goals / match3.00

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Japan.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Brazil.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Japan expected goals

1.05

Brazil expected goals

1.43

1–113.7%

0–110.9%

0–09.5%

1–29.0%

0–28.6%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.