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UEFA Nations League · UEFA Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 94.6h before kickoff

France vs Türkiye

🇫🇷 France

🇹🇷 Türkiye

Sun, 15 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

France host Türkiye in UEFA Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, France collected 13 points (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). Türkiye earned 3 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, France have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Türkiye have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, France average 1.38 xG and 1.01 xGA over 4 recent matches; Türkiye average 1.77 xG and 1.76 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

74.4%Home

18.6%Draw

7.0%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 74.4%

Total goals

64.5%Over 2.5

35.5%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.5%Yes

42.5%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Nations League page →

France

No pre-match table context available.

Türkiye

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

France

WWWDW

2.60Points / match

1.80Goals / match

1.38xG / match

1.01xGA / match

Türkiye

WLLLL

0.60Points / match

1.00Goals / match

1.77xG / match

1.76xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

France at home

W-D-L3-2-0

Points / match2.20

Goals / match1.80

xG / match1.56

Türkiye away

W-D-L2-0-3

Points / match1.20

Goals / match1.80

xG / match1.50

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

France

xGxGA

Türkiye

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

France expected goals

2.74

Türkiye expected goals

0.70

2–012.1%

3–011.0%

2–18.4%

1–08.3%

3–17.7%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.