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UEFA Nations League · UEFA Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 94.6h before kickoff

Croatia vs Czechia

🇭🇷 Croatia

🇨🇿 Czechia

Sun, 15 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Croatia host Czechia in UEFA Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Croatia collected 3 points (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). Czechia earned 3 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Croatia have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Czechia have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Croatia average 1.18 xG and 2.58 xGA over 4 recent matches; Czechia average 0.48 xG and 1.87 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

51.6%Home

23.7%Draw

24.6%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 51.6%

Total goals

63.4%Over 2.5

36.6%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

51.4%Yes

48.6%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Nations League page →

Croatia

No pre-match table context available.

Czechia

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Croatia

LWLLL

0.60Points / match

0.80Goals / match

1.18xG / match

2.58xGA / match

Czechia

WLLLL

0.60Points / match

0.80Goals / match

0.48xG / match

1.87xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Croatia at home

W-D-L2-1-2

Points / match1.40

Goals / match1.20

xG / match1.21

Czechia away

W-D-L0-2-3

Points / match0.40

Goals / match0.60

xG / match0.33

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Croatia

xGxGA

Czechia

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Croatia expected goals

1.71

Czechia expected goals

1.01

1–112.4%

1–010.2%

2–19.7%

2–09.6%

0–07.6%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.