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UEFA Nations League · UEFA Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 95.9h before kickoff

Finland vs San Marino

🇫🇮 Finland

🇸🇲 San Marino

Sun, 15 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Finland host San Marino in UEFA Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Finland collected 7 points (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). San Marino earned 3 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Finland have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, San Marino have 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Finland average 1.43 xG and 0.65 xGA over 4 recent matches; San Marino average 0.52 xG and 2.65 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

92.1%Home

6.4%Draw

1.5%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 92.1%

Total goals

59.6%Over 2.5

40.4%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

40.4%Yes

59.6%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Nations League page →

Finland

No pre-match table context available.

San Marino

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Finland

LWDWL

1.40Points / match

1.80Goals / match

1.43xG / match

0.65xGA / match

San Marino

WLLLL

0.60Points / match

0.80Goals / match

0.52xG / match

2.65xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Finland at home

W-D-L1-1-3

Points / match0.80

Goals / match0.80

xG / match0.61

San Marino away

W-D-L1-0-4

Points / match0.60

Goals / match0.80

xG / match0.78

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Finland

xGxGA

San Marino

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Finland expected goals

3.72

San Marino expected goals

0.35

3–014.9%

4–013.8%

2–012.0%

5–010.3%

6–06.4%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.