FC Arouca vs CD Nacional

FC Arouca host CD Nacional in Liga Portugal Betclic. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, FC Arouca collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). CD Nacional earned 1 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, FC Arouca have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, CD Nacional have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, FC Arouca average 1.33 xG and 1.03 xGA over 5 recent matches; CD Nacional average 1.04 xG and 1.79 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places FC Arouca in position 5 and CD Nacional in position 17. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

FC Arouca won 1–0 against CD Nacional. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 0.70 for FC Arouca and 0.32 for CD Nacional. FC Arouca generated the higher xG total. FC Arouca scored +0.30 goals relative to xG and CD Nacional scored -0.32 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

FC Arouca registered 12 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 41.7%); CD Nacional recorded 5 shots, with 1 on target (shot accuracy: 20.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (59.2%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

FC Arouca vs CD Nacional

Final score: 1–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 0.70 – 0.32.

Shots: 12 – 5.

Shots on target: 5 – 1.

Possession: 62.00% – 38.00%.

Corners: 8 – 2.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.