FC Alverca vs FC Arouca

FC Alverca host FC Arouca in Liga Portugal Betclic. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, FC Alverca collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). FC Arouca earned 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, FC Alverca have 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, FC Arouca have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, FC Alverca average 1.77 xG and 1.31 xGA over 5 recent matches; FC Arouca average 1.25 xG and 1.08 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places FC Alverca in position 7 and FC Arouca in position 5. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 2 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

FC Arouca won 1–0 away to FC Alverca. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 0.39 for FC Alverca and 2.04 for FC Arouca. FC Arouca generated the higher xG total. FC Alverca scored -0.39 goals relative to xG and FC Arouca scored -1.04 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

FC Alverca registered 10 shots, with 1 on target (shot accuracy: 10.0%); FC Arouca recorded 17 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 23.5%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (41.5%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

FC Alverca vs FC Arouca

Final score: 0–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 0.39 – 2.04.

Shots: 10 – 17.

Shots on target: 1 – 4.

Possession: 29.00% – 71.00%.

Corners: 3 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.