CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia

CF Estrela Amadora host Casa Pia in Liga Portugal Betclic. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, CF Estrela Amadora collected 5 points (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). Casa Pia earned 4 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, CF Estrela Amadora have 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Casa Pia have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, CF Estrela Amadora average 1.13 xG and 1.38 xGA over 5 recent matches; Casa Pia average 1.03 xG and 1.38 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places CF Estrela Amadora in position 10 and Casa Pia in position 17. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Casa Pia won 2–0 away to CF Estrela Amadora. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.69 for CF Estrela Amadora and 0.79 for Casa Pia. CF Estrela Amadora generated the higher xG total. CF Estrela Amadora scored -1.69 goals relative to xG and Casa Pia scored +1.21 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

CF Estrela Amadora registered 18 shots, with 6 on target (shot accuracy: 33.3%); Casa Pia recorded 10 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 40.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (46.7%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia

Final score: 0–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.69 – 0.79.

Shots: 18 – 10.

Shots on target: 6 – 4.

Possession: 63.00% – 37.00%.

Corners: 7 – 5.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.