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CONCACAF Nations League · CONCACAF Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 61.8h before kickoff

Curaçao vs Panama

🇨🇼 Curaçao

🇵🇦 Panama

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Curaçao host Panama in CONCACAF Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Curaçao collected 13 points (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). Panama earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Curaçao have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Panama have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

46.3%Home

22.9%Draw

30.7%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 46.3%

Total goals

58.1%Over 2.5

41.9%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

53.3%Yes

46.7%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

CONCACAF Nations League page →

Curaçao

No pre-match table context available.

Panama

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Curaçao

WWWWD

2.60Points / match

3.20Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Panama

LWDWL

1.40Points / match

1.00Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Curaçao at home

W-D-L5-0-0

Points / match3.00

Goals / match3.20

xG / match—

Panama away

W-D-L3-0-2

Points / match1.80

Goals / match1.20

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Curaçao.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Panama.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Curaçao expected goals

1.76

Panama expected goals

1.27

1–111.8%

2–19.5%

1–07.6%

2–07.5%

1–26.8%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.