Home›Matches›CONCACAF Nations League›Bonaire vs Cuba

CONCACAF Nations League · CONCACAF Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 57.8h before kickoff

Bonaire vs Cuba

🇧🇶 Bonaire

🇨🇺 Cuba

Thu, 12 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Bonaire host Cuba in CONCACAF Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Bonaire collected 3 points (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). Cuba earned 11 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Bonaire have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Cuba have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

6.8%Home

12.0%Draw

81.2%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 81.2%

Total goals

68.3%Over 2.5

31.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

58.7%Yes

41.3%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

CONCACAF Nations League page →

Bonaire

No pre-match table context available.

Cuba

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Bonaire

LLLLW

0.60Points / match

1.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Cuba

WWWDD

2.20Points / match

2.80Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Bonaire at home

W-D-L0-1-4

Points / match0.20

Goals / match0.80

xG / match—

Cuba away

W-D-L1-2-2

Points / match1.00

Goals / match1.60

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Bonaire.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Cuba.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Bonaire expected goals

0.81

Cuba expected goals

3.39

0–39.8%

0–28.6%

0–48.3%

1–38.0%

1–27.0%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.