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CONCACAF Nations League · CONCACAF Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 56.8h before kickoff

Aruba vs Martinique

🇦🇼 Aruba

🇲🇶 Martinique

Thu, 12 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Aruba host Martinique in CONCACAF Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Aruba collected 9 points (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). Martinique earned 5 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Aruba have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Martinique have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

40.6%Home

21.4%Draw

37.9%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 40.6%

Total goals

52.0%Over 2.5

48.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

46.2%Yes

53.8%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

CONCACAF Nations League page →

Aruba

No pre-match table context available.

Martinique

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Aruba

LWWWL

1.80Points / match

1.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Martinique

DLLWD

1.00Points / match

1.00Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Aruba at home

W-D-L2-0-3

Points / match1.20

Goals / match1.00

xG / match—

Martinique away

W-D-L1-1-3

Points / match0.80

Goals / match0.80

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Aruba.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Martinique.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Aruba expected goals

1.39

Martinique expected goals

1.28

1–113.4%

2–18.6%

1–08.5%

0–08.0%

1–27.9%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.