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Brasileirão Série A · Brasileirão Série A 2026 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 162.0h before kickoff

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Chapecoense host Vasco da Gama in Brasileirão Série A. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Chapecoense collected 3 points (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). Vasco da Gama earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Chapecoense have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Vasco da Gama have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Chapecoense average 0.74 xG and 1.93 xGA over 5 recent matches; Vasco da Gama average 1.17 xG and 0.89 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Chapecoense in position 20 and Vasco da Gama in position 13. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

20.1%Home
24.5%Draw
55.4%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 55.4%

Total goals

54.7%Over 2.5
45.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

54.9%Yes
45.1%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Chapecoense 5/5, Vasco da Gama 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Brasileirão Série A page →
Chapecoense
Position#20
Points21
Played33
Goal difference-35
Vasco da Gama
Position#13
Points41
Played33
Goal difference-7

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Chapecoense

LLWLL
0.60Points / match
0.80Goals / match
0.74xG / match
1.93xGA / match
VS

Vasco da Gama

DLWLW
1.40Points / match
1.40Goals / match
1.17xG / match
0.89xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Chapecoense at home
W-D-L2-0-3
Points / match1.20
Goals / match1.20
xG / match0.89
Vasco da Gama away
W-D-L3-0-2
Points / match1.80
Goals / match1.40
xG / match1.13

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Chapecoense

12 Oct17 Oct24 Oct28 Oct03 Nov
xGxGA

Vasco da Gama

10 Oct18 Oct24 Oct29 Oct04 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Chapecoense expected goals

1.03

Vasco da Gama expected goals

1.84
1–111.7%
1–29.9%
0–29.6%
0–19.5%
0–06.6%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Chapecoense

03 NovLH · MirassolxG 0.54 · xGA 2.191–2
28 OctLA · Red Bull BragantinoxG 0.76 · xGA 2.580–3
24 OctWH · FluminensexG 0.52 · xGA 1.382–1
17 OctLA · BotafogoxG 0.21 · xGA 2.360–1
12 OctLH · AthleticoxG 1.68 · xGA 1.161–4

Vasco da Gama

04 NovWA · AthleticoxG 0.71 · xGA 0.393–1
29 OctLH · FlamengoxG 1.15 · xGA 1.801–4
24 OctWH · CorinthiansxG 1.75 · xGA 0.753–2
18 OctLA · São PauloxG 0.90 · xGA 1.230–1
10 OctDH · RemoxG 1.35 · xGA 0.300–0

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

More Brasileirão Série A match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.