Chapecoense vs Mirassol

Chapecoense host Mirassol in Brasileirão Série A. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Chapecoense collected 3 points (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). Mirassol earned 5 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Chapecoense have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Mirassol have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Chapecoense average 0.70 xG and 2.01 xGA over 5 recent matches; Mirassol average 1.63 xG and 1.99 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Chapecoense in position 20 and Mirassol in position 16. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Mirassol won 2–1 away to Chapecoense. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 0.54 for Chapecoense and 2.19 for Mirassol. Mirassol generated the higher xG total. Chapecoense scored +0.46 goals relative to xG and Mirassol scored -0.19 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Chapecoense registered 11 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 36.4%); Mirassol recorded 15 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 26.7%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (40.3%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Chapecoense vs Mirassol

Final score: 1–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 0.54 – 2.19.

Shots: 11 – 15.

Shots on target: 4 – 4.

Possession: 47.00% – 53.00%.

Corners: 4 – 5.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.