SmartMatchData
← All matches
Saudi Pro League · Saudi Pro League 26/27 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 270.2h before kickoff

Al-Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Al-Shabab host Al-Ettifaq in Saudi Pro League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Al-Shabab collected 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). Al-Ettifaq earned 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Al-Shabab have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Al-Ettifaq have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Al-Shabab average 2.43 xG and 1.00 xGA over 5 recent matches; Al-Ettifaq average 1.45 xG and 1.90 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Al-Shabab in position 10 and Al-Ettifaq in position 7. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

51.9%Home
24.9%Draw
23.2%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 51.9%

Total goals

56.3%Over 2.5
43.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.6%Yes
42.4%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Al-Shabab 5/5, Al-Ettifaq 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Saudi Pro League page →
Al-Shabab
Position#10
Points14
Played11
Goal difference+5
Al-Ettifaq
Position#7
Points19
Played12
Goal difference+1

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Al-Shabab

DWDWW
2.20Points / match
2.80Goals / match
2.43xG / match
1.00xGA / match
VS

Al-Ettifaq

DWLWD
1.60Points / match
1.40Goals / match
1.45xG / match
1.90xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Al-Shabab at home
W-D-L2-2-1
Points / match1.60
Goals / match2.20
xG / match1.94
Al-Ettifaq away
W-D-L3-2-0
Points / match2.20
Goals / match1.80
xG / match1.08

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Al-Shabab

12 Sep11 Oct19 Oct22 Oct30 Oct
xGxGA

Al-Ettifaq

10 Oct17 Oct20 Oct24 Oct31 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Al-Shabab expected goals

1.80

Al-Ettifaq expected goals

1.14
1–111.8%
2–19.8%
2–08.6%
1–08.5%
0–06.3%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Al-Shabab

30 OctWH · Al-AhlixG 4.25 · xGA 1.006–1
22 OctWA · Al-FatehxG 3.20 · xGA 1.043–1
19 OctDH · Al-FaisalyxG 1.27 · xGA 1.542–2
11 OctWH · Al-TaawounxG 2.34 · xGA 0.903–0
12 SepDH · Al-FayhaxG 1.09 · xGA 0.540–0

Al-Ettifaq

31 OctDA · Al-TaawounxG 2.08 · xGA 1.321–1
24 OctWA · Al-KholoodxG 1.26 · xGA 1.863–0
20 OctLH · Al-IttihadxG 1.75 · xGA 2.931–4
17 OctWA · Neom SCxG 0.14 · xGA 0.701–0
10 OctDH · Al-KhaleejxG 2.02 · xGA 2.671–1

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

07 Mar 2026Al-Ettifaq — Al-Shabab1–1
08 Nov 2025Al-Shabab — Al-Ettifaq1–1
31 Jan 2025Al-Ettifaq — Al-Shabab3–1
24 Aug 2024Al-Shabab — Al-Ettifaq0–1
23 May 2024Al-Ettifaq — Al-Shabab1–0

More Saudi Pro League match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.